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2012 United States Senate election in Arizona

For related races, see 2012 United States Senate elections.

2012 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout52.9% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Jeff Flake Richard Carmona
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,104,457 1,036,542
Percentage 49.23% 46.20%
Flake:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Carmona:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Jon Kyl
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jeff Flake
Republican

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Senator Jon Kyl (R), the Senate Minority Whip, decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term.[2] U.S. Representative Jeff Flake won the open seat. As of 2024, this was the last time that a Republican won Arizona's Class 1 Senate seat. This is also the last time an Arizona Republican was elected to and served a full term in the US Senate.

Kyl later served in the Senate again in 2018 from September 5 to December 31; he was appointed to Arizona's other Senate seat after John McCain's August 2018 death and served until his resignation.

Republican primary

The filing deadline for Republican candidates was June 1, 2012, and the primary election took place on August 28, 2012.

Candidates

Declared

  • Wil Cardon, CEO of a real estate investment firm[3][4]
  • Jeff Flake, U.S. Representative from the 6th district[5]
  • Bryan Hackbarth, former mayor of Youngtown[6]
  • Clair Van Steenwyk, conservative radio host[7]

Withdrew

  • Doug McKee, businessman[8]

Declined

Endorsements

Jeff Flake
Wil Cardon

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Wil
Cardon 		Jeff
Flake 		Bryan
Hackbarth 		Doug
McKee 		Clair
Van Steenwyk 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22] May 17–20, 2012 421 ± 4.8% 20% 42% 3% 1% 2% — 33%
Public Policy Polling[23] February 17–19, 2012 412 ± 4.8% 7% 56% 5% 1% 1% — 31%
Public Policy Polling[24] November 17–20, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 7% 53% 5% 1% 2% — 33%
Magellan Strategies[25] November 14–15, 2011 722 ± 3.6% 4% 52% 1% 1% 2% 8% 32%

Results

Results by county:
  Flake—70–80%
  Flake—60–70%
  Flake—50–60%
Republican primary results[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Flake 357,360 69.3%
Republican Wil Cardon 110,150 21.4%
Republican Clair Van Steenwyk 29,159 5.6%
Republican Bryan Hackbarth 19,174 3.7%
Republican John Lyon (Write-in) 126 nil
Republican Luis Acle (Write-in) 56 nil
Total votes 516,025 100%

Democratic primary

Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona was the only candidate for the Democratic nomination, receiving all 289,881 votes cast in the primary election.[27]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Dennis
Burke 		Rodney
Glassman 		Terry
Goddard 		Phil
Gordan 		Harry
Mitchell 		Ed
Pastor 		Felecia
Rotellini 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[41] April 28 – May 1, 2011 300 ± 5.7% 2% 5% 50% 8% 11% 5% 6% 14%

Results

Democratic primary results[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Richard Carmona 289,881 100%
Total votes 289,881 100%

General election

Candidates

  • Jeff Flake (Republican), U.S. Representative
  • Richard Carmona (Democratic), former U.S. Surgeon General
  • Michael F. Meyer (independent)
  • Marc J. Victor (Libertarian), attorney

Debates

There were three debates before the election. The first was in Phoenix on October 10, 2012, the second in Tucson on October 15 and the last was in Yuma on October 25. External links

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Jeff Flake (R) $9,026,951 $9,557,420 $97,360 $0
Richard Carmona (D) $6,459,739 $6,373,544 $86,195 $0
Marc J. Victor (L) $8,336 $8,334 $0 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[42][43][44][45][46]

Top contributors

Richard Carmona Contribution Jeff Flake Contribution
University of Arizona $54,100 Club for Growth $1,000,112
League of Conservation Voters $53,148 Senate Conservatives Fund $176,484
Canyon Ranch $31,400 US Airways $54,300
Clorox Company $25,000 Freeport-McMoRan $53,750
Arizona State University $22,600 Cancer Treatment Centers of America $40,500
Banner Health $18,500 Knight Transportation $35,500
Lewis and Roca $17,100 Pinnacle West Capital $35,500
Taser International $15,500 Marriott International $29,750
Coca-Cola Co $15,286 Shamrock Farms $24,750
Pederson Group $15,000 Services Group of America $15,650
Source: OpenSecrets[47]

Top industries

Richard Carmona Contribution Jeff Flake Contribution Ian Gilyeat Contribution
Retired $653,066 Republican/Conservative $1,146,046 Retired $250
Lawyers/Law Firms $409,395 Retired $643,260 Lawyers/Law Firms $250
Health Professionals $313,135 Leadership PACs $502,352
Leadership PACs $279,530 Real Estate $302,572
Colleges/Universities $189,270 Financial Institutions $279,670
Real Estate $145,000 Lawyers/Law Firms $200,702
Business Services $122,749 Misc Finance $188,122
Financial Institutions $118,500 Mining $170,602
Democratic/Liberal $111,889 Health Professionals $164,607
Lobbyists $105,172 Oil & Gas $147,860
Source: OpenSecrets[48]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[49] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[50] Lean R November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[51] Tilt R November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[52] Lean R November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Richard
Carmona (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] November 2–3, 2012 1,080 ± 3% 51% 46% — 3%
Rasmussen Reports[54] October 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 50% 44% 3% 3%
Rocky Mountain Poll[55] October 4–10, 2012 523 ± 4.4% 40% 44% — 16%
Public Policy Polling[56] October 1–3, 2012 595 ± 4% 43% 45% — 12%
HighGround/Moore[57] September 25–26, 2012 500 ± 4% 43% 40% 5% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[58] September 25, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 41% 3% 9%
LCV/Public Policy Polling[59] September 7–9, 2012 993 ± n/a% 44% 43% — 13%
LCV/Public Policy Polling[60] July 23–25, 2012 833 ± 3.4% 38% 38% — 25%
Rasmussen Reports[61] June 26, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 31% 5% 17%
Public Policy Polling[62] June 4–5, 2012 791 ± 3.5% 43% 41% — 16%
Public Policy Polling[22] May 17–20, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 48% 35% — 17%
Magellan Strategies[63] April 30 – May 2, 2012 909 ± 3.3% 44% 40% — 16%
Rasmussen Reports[64] March 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 34% 4% 16%
NBC News/Marist[65] February 19–20, 2012 2,487 ± 2.0% 42% 29% — 28%
Public Policy Polling[66] February 17–19, 2012 743 ± 3.6% 46% 35% — 19%
Public Policy Polling[67] November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 40% 36% — 24%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Wil
Cardon (R) 		Richard
Carmona (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[67] November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 35% 33% — 32%
Public Policy Polling[66] February 17–19, 2012 743 ± 3.6% 37% 33% — 30%
Rasmussen Reports[64] March 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 39% 38% 3% 20%
Magellan Strategies[63] April 30 – May 2, 2012 909 ± 3.3% 41% 40% — 19%
Public Policy Polling[22] May 17–20, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 40% 37% — 23%

Republican primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Flake 		J.D.
Hayworth 		Sarah
Palin 		Gary
Pierce 		Marilyn
Quayle 		Fife
Symington 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[41] April 28 – May 1, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 33% 11% 35% 3% 2% 3% 13%

Democratic primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Dennis
Burke 		Gabrielle
Giffords 		Rodney
Glassman 		Terry
Goddard 		Phil
Gordan 		Harry
Mitchell 		Ed
Pastor 		Felecia
Rotellini 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[41] April 28 – May 1, 2011 300 ± 5.7% 2% 46% 4% 28% 2% 5% 4% 2% 6%

with Don Bivens

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Wil
Cardon (R) 		Don
Bivens (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[67] November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 35% 27% — 37%
Public Policy Polling[66] February 17–19, 2012 743 ± 3.6% 38% 32% — 31%
Rasmussen Reports[64] March 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 42% 30% 4% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Don
Bivens (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[67] November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 42% 32% — 26%
Public Policy Polling[66] February 17–19, 2012 743 ± 3.6% 46% 35% — 19%
Rasmussen Reports[64] March 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 30% 3% 20%

with J.D. Hayworth

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		J.D.
Hayworth (R) 		Gabrielle
Giffords (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 31% 57% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		J.D.
Hayworth (R) 		Terry
Goddard (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 33% 51% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		J.D.
Hayworth (R) 		Phil
Gordon (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 36% 44% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		J.D.
Hayworth (R) 		Ed
Pastor (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 37% 42% 21%

with Jeff Flake

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Gabrielle
Giffords (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 41% 48% 11%

with Jon Kyl

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jon
Kyl (R) 		Terry
Goddard (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[69] January 28–30, 2011 599 ± 4.0% 50% 40% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jon
Kyl (R) 		Phil
Gordon (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[69] January 28–30, 2011 599 ± 4.0% 54% 33% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jon
Kyl (R) 		Ann
Kirkpatrick (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[69] January 28–30, 2011 599 ± 4.0% 51% 35% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jon
Kyl (R) 		Janet
Napolitano (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[69] January 28–30, 2011 599 ± 4.0% 53% 41% 6%

with Sarah Palin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sarah
Palin (R) 		Gabrielle
Giffords (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 36% 54% 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sarah
Palin (R) 		Terry
Goddard (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 40% 49% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sarah
Palin (R) 		Phil
Gordon (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 41% 45% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sarah
Palin (R) 		Ed
Pastor (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] April 28 – May 1, 2011 623 ± 3.9% 43% 45% 12%

Results

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2012[70]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Jeff Flake 1,104,457 49.23% −4.11%
Democratic Richard Carmona 1,036,542 46.20% +2.70%
Libertarian Marc J. Victor 102,109 4.55% +1.39%
Independent Steven Watts (write-in) 290 0.01% N/A
Independent Don Manspeaker (write-in) 24 0.00% N/A
Total votes 2,243,422 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Despite losing, Carmona carried 5 of the 9 congressional districts.[71]

District Carmona Flake Representative
1st 49.11% 46.32% Ann Kirkpatrick
2nd 51.52% 45.03% Ron Barber
3rd 63.08% 32.79% Raúl Grijalva
4th 33.36% 60.94% Paul Gosar
5th 35.52% 60.06% Matt Salmon
6th 40.32% 55.35% David Schweikert
7th 71.87% 23.14% Ed Pastor
8th 38.9% 56.29% Trent Franks
9th 51.77% 43.39% Kyrsten Sinema

See also

References

  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  2. ^ Catanese, David; Epstein, Jennifer (February 10, 2011). "Sen. Jon Kyl announces his retirement from Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 10, 2011.
  3. ^ Catanese, David; Scott Wong (August 5, 2011). "Self funder to primary Jeff Flake". Politico. Retrieved August 8, 2011.
  4. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (August 8, 2011). "Flake Draws Wealthy GOP Primary Opponent". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 16, 2011. Retrieved August 8, 2011.
  5. ^ "Jeff Flake announces he'll run for Kyl seat". Associated Press. February 14, 2011. Retrieved February 14, 2011.
  6. ^ "Paid for by Bryan Hackbarth for United States Senate". brian4senate.com. Archived from the original on January 11, 2012. Retrieved April 12, 2018.
  7. ^ Nowicki, Dan (October 16, 2011). "Senate hopefuls' fundraising revealed for 3rd quarter". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 26, 2011.
  8. ^ "Local man launches U.S. Senate campaign". Mohave Valley Daily News. June 3, 2011. Retrieved June 6, 2011.[permanent dead link‍]
  9. ^ Burns, Alexander (February 10, 2011). "Fife eyes Senate, floats NFL star Kurt Warner". Politico. Retrieved February 10, 2011.
  10. ^ "Battling DOJ, Arpaio to run again". politico.com. Retrieved April 12, 2018.
  11. ^ Sullivan, Sean (February 11, 2011). "Brewer Won't Run for Kyl's Seat". National Journal. Archived from the original on March 19, 2011. Retrieved February 11, 2011.
  12. ^ Sullivan, Sean (April 1, 2011). "Franks not running for Senate in Arizona". National Journal. Archived from the original on May 15, 2011. Retrieved April 1, 2011.
  13. ^ King, James (April 28, 2011). "Rumor Mill: J.D. Hayworth Will NOT Run For Senate -- Again". Phoenix New Times. Retrieved November 15, 2011.
  14. ^ staff, CBS Interactive (June 6, 2011). "Palin denies new Ariz. home is for Senate run - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
  15. ^ Drucker, David M. (February 12, 2011). "Early, Long Whip Race Will Test GOP Cohesion". Roll Call. Archived from the original on February 14, 2011. Retrieved February 13, 2011.
  16. ^ Bedard, Paul (February 11, 2011). "Ben Quayle Staying Put in House". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved February 13, 2011.
  17. ^ Bodfield, Rhonda; Kelly, Andrea (February 13, 2011). "With Kyl leaving, we at least know some who won't be seeking his seat". Arizona Daily Star. Retrieved February 13, 2011.
  18. ^ Sunnucks, Mike (February 11, 2011). "Shadegg won't run for Kyl's Senate seat, Trent Franks looking at run". Phoenix Business Journal. Retrieved February 11, 2011.
  19. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (April 30, 2012). "Arizona: Jim DeMint Endorses Jeff Flake in Senate Primary". Roll Call. Retrieved April 12, 2018.
  20. ^ "GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements – GOProud, Inc". October 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 25, 2012. Retrieved April 12, 2018.
  21. ^ "NRA-PVF Endorses Jeff Flake for U.S. Senate in Arizona". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. September 27, 2012. Archived from the original on August 12, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  22. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  23. ^ Public Policy Polling
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ Magellan Strategies [permanent dead link‍]
  26. ^ a b "Official Election Canvass of Results" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 12, 2013. Retrieved September 3, 2014.
  27. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 12, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  28. ^ Sullivan, Sean (November 10, 2011). "Carmona Will Run in Arizona". National Journal. Archived from the original on November 12, 2011. Retrieved November 10, 2011.
  29. ^ Livingston, Abby (March 28, 2012). "Arizona: Bivens Drops Out, Democratic Field Clears". Roll Call. Retrieved April 12, 2018.
  30. ^ Sanders, Rebekah (May 21, 2012). "U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake files signatures for primary". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2012.
  31. ^ McCombs, Brady (June 9, 2012). "Democrat Ruben ends US Senate campaign". Arizona Daily Star. Retrieved June 16, 2012.
  32. ^ Haque, Fahima (February 11, 2011). "Arizona U.S. Attorney for Senate?". Main Justice. Archived from the original on August 16, 2011. Retrieved February 14, 2011.
  33. ^ Cillizza, Chris (February 10, 2011). "Gabrielle Giffords was planning possible Senate run before shooting". WashingtonPost.com. Archived from the original on September 14, 2012. Retrieved February 10, 2011.
  34. ^ Sunnucks, Mike (February 10, 2011). "Phoenix mayor ponders a run for Kyl's seat; Luis Gonzalez not interested". Phoenix Business Journal. Retrieved February 10, 2011.
  35. ^ Miller, Sean J. (March 2, 2011). "Arizona Democrat considering Senate run in absence of Rep. Giffords". The Hill. Retrieved July 23, 2011.
  36. ^ Nowicki, Dan (November 20, 2011). "Arizona civil-rights leader weighs Senate run". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 21, 2011.
  37. ^ [1] Archived January 31, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  38. ^ "Mark Kelly: I'm not running for office – Jennifer Epstein". Politico.Com. Retrieved July 11, 2011.
  39. ^ King, James (February 18, 2011). "Janet Napolitano No-Go on Senate Run; Wants to Focus on Border Security". Phoenix New Times. Archived from the original on February 19, 2011. Retrieved February 18, 2011.
  40. ^ Nowicki, Dan (February 16, 2011). "Pederson won't run for Kyl's Senate seat". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved February 16, 2011.
  41. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  42. ^ "Carmona Campaign Finances". fec.gov. Retrieved April 12, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
  43. ^ "Flake Campaign Finances". fec.gov. Retrieved April 12, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
  44. ^ "Kansas District 04 2012 Race". OpenSecrets.
  45. ^ "Victor Campaign Finances". fec.gov. Retrieved April 12, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
  46. ^ "Meyer Campaign Finances". fec.gov. Retrieved April 12, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
  47. ^ "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Arizona Senate". OpenSecrets.
  48. ^ "Top Industries 2012 Race: Arizona Senate". OpenSecrets.
  49. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  50. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  51. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  52. ^ "2012 Elections Map – Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  53. ^ Public Policy Polling
  54. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  55. ^ Rocky Mountain Poll
  56. ^ Public Policy Polling
  57. ^ HighGround/Moore Archived October 3, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  58. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  59. ^ LCV/Public Policy Polling
  60. ^ LCV/Public Policy Polling
  61. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  62. ^ Public Policy Polling
  63. ^ a b Magellan Strategies
  64. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  65. ^ NBC News/Marist
  66. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  67. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  68. ^ a b c d e f g h i Public Policy Polling
  69. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  70. ^ 2012 Election. State of Arizona. Official Canvass
  71. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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