2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election
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| Turnout | 37.1%  2.9 pp | |||||||||||||||||||
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  Beshear: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Fletcher: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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 Government |
The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term, but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries.[1] Steve Beshear's son Andy was elected Kentucky's State Attorney General in 2015[2] and Kentucky's Governor in 2019 and 2023.
Background
Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the attorney general of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%,[3] putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.
Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).
On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Steve Beshear – former Lt. Governor of Kentucky, 1983–1987; former attorney general of Kentucky, 1979–1983; former State Representative, 1974–1979.
- Running mate: State Senator Daniel Mongiardo, 2001–2007.
- Gatewood Galbraith – Attorney, Legalization of Marijuana and Industrial Hemp Advocate
- Running mate: Mark Wireman
- Steve Henry – former Lt. Governor of Kentucky, 1995–2003
- Running Mate: Fayette County Property Valuation Administrator Renee True, 1992-present
- Otis Hensley – Private contractor from Wallins Creek, Kentucky who received 3% of the vote in the Democratic primary in 2003.
- Running mate: Richard Robbins
- Bruce Lunsford – prominent Louisville businessman; sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2003; withdrew four days before the primary, endorsing Jody Richards.
- Running mate: Greg Stumbo, Attorney General of Kentucky 2004–2007; former State Representative, 1985–2003.
- Jody Richards – State Representative, 1975–present (Speaker of the House, 1996–2007); received 47% of the vote in the Democratic primary for Governor of Kentucky in 2003.
- Running mate: John Y. Brown III, Kentucky Secretary of State 1995–2003.
Polling
| Source | Date | Steve Beshear |
Gatewood Galbraith |
Steve Henry |
Otis Hensley |
Bruce Lunsford |
Jody Richards |
Jonathan Miller |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[4] | May 18–20, 2007 | 32% | 7% | 17% | 1% | 23% | 12% | N/A |
| Penn, Schoen and Berland[5] | May 16–17, 2007 | 26% | N/A | 13% | N/A | 22% | 12% | N/A |
| GarinHartYang Research[6] | May 14–15, 2007 | 35% | N/A | 13% | N/A | 23% | 12% | N/A |
| Survey USA[7] | May 12–14, 2007 | 32% | 5% | 18% | 1% | 23% | 12% | N/A |
| Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[8] | May 10–14, 2007 | 27% | 4% | 13% | 1% | 21% | 7% | N/A |
| Survey USA[9] | April 28–30, 2007 | 23% | 6% | 18% | 1% | 29% | 9% | 7% |
| Mellman Group[10] | April 19–22, 2007 | 15% | N/A | 24% | N/A | 16% | 9% | 20% |
| Survey USA[11] | March 31 – April 2, 2007 | 15% | 8% | 20% | 1% | 20% | 12% | 8% |
| Survey USA[12] | March 3–5, 2007 | 15% | 6% | 26% | 2% | 7% | 13% | 8% |
| GarinHartYang Research[13] | February 20–22, 2007 | 21% | N/A | 21% | N/A | 8% | 16% | 8% |
Results
- Beshear—80-90%
- Beshear—70-80%
- Beshear—60-70%
- Beshear—50-60%
- Beshear—40-50%
- Beshear—30-40%
- Beshear—20-30%
- Lunsford—60-70%
- Lunsford—50-60%
- Lunsford—40-50%
- Lunsford—30-40%
- Henry—50-60%
- Henry—40-50%
- Henry—30-40%
- Richards—60-70%
- Richards—50-60%
- Richards—40-50%
- Richards—30-40%
- Richards—20-30%
- Galbraith—30-40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Beshear | 142,838 | 41.02% | |
| Democratic | Bruce Lunsford | 74,578 | 21.42% | |
| Democratic | Steve Henry | 60,893 | 17.49% | |
| Democratic | Jody Richards | 45,433 | 13.05% | |
| Democratic | Gatewood Galbraith | 20,704 | 5.95% | |
| Democratic | Otis Hensley | 3,792 | 1.09% | |
| Total votes | 348,238 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Ernie Fletcher – Incumbent governor of Kentucky, 2003–present; former U.S. representative for Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 1999–2003; former State Representative, 1995–1997
- Running mate: Robbie Rudolph, State Secretary of Executive Cabinet, 2006–2007; State Secretary of Finance, 2003–2006.
- Billy Harper – Businessman
- Running mate: Dick Wilson.
- Anne Northup – former U.S. representative for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 1997–2007; former State Representative, 1987–1997.
- Running mate: Jeff Hoover, state representative 1997–present.
Polling
| Source | Date | Ernie Fletcher |
Billy Harper |
Anne Northup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[4] | May 18–20, 2007 | 44% | 17% | 34% |
| Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[8] | May 10–15, 2007 | 41% | 10% | 26% |
| Survey USA[7] | May 12–14, 2007 | 44% | 14% | 34% |
| Survey USA[9] | April 28–30, 2007 | 46% | 14% | 34% |
| Survey USA[11] | March 31 – April 2, 2007 | 40% | 16% | 31% |
| Survey USA[12] | March 3–5, 2007 | 33% | 13% | 31% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[15] | January 28–29, 2007 | 39% | 10% | 39% |
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) | 101,328 | 50.08% | |
| Republican | Anne Northup | 73,919 | 36.53% | |
| Republican | Billy Harper | 27,092 | 13.39% | |
| Total votes | 202,339 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Polling
| Source | Date | Steve Beshear (D) |
Ernie Fletcher (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[16] | November 2–4, 2007 | 59% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports[17] | November 1, 2007 | 54% | 39% |
| Survey USA[18] | October 27–29, 2007 | 60% | 36% |
| Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[19] | October 26–29, 2007 | 56% | 33% |
| Research 2000[20] | October 22–24, 2007 | 55% | 40% |
| Survey USA[21] | October 19–21, 2007 | 58% | 38% |
| Survey USA[22] | October 8–9, 2007 | 56% | 40% |
| Insider Advantage[23] | September 24–25, 2007 | 45% | 35% |
| Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[24] | September 13–18, 2007 | 55% | 35% |
| Preston-Osborne[25] | September 13–17, 2007 | 51% | 36% |
| Research 2000[26] | September 10–13, 2007 | 56% | 39% |
| Survey USA[27] | September 8–10, 2007 | 58% | 39% |
| Survey USA[28] | August 4–6, 2007 | 58% | 37% |
| Preston-Osborne[29] | July 25 – August 2, 2007 | 49% | 31% |
| Survey USA[30] | July 14–16, 2007 | 59% | 36% |
| Insider Advantage[31] | July 8–9, 2007 | 41% | 38% |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | May 24–25, 2007 | 51% | 35% |
| Survey USA[33] | May 23–24, 2007 | 62% | 34% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Likely D (flip) | November 1, 2007 |
Results
Fletcher conceded to Beshear at 9:00 PM on November 6.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Beshear | 619,552 | 58.71% | +13.74% | |
| Republican | Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) | 435,773 | 41.29% | −13.74% | |
| Total votes | 1,055,325 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Anderson (Largest city: Lawrenceburg)
- Barren (Largest city: Glasgow)
- Bell (Largest city: Middlesboro)
- Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
- Boyle (Largest city: Danville)
- Bracken (Largest city: Augusta)
- Breckinridge (Largest city: Hardinsburg)
- Bullitt (Largest city: Mount Washington)
- Caldwell (Largest city: Princeton)
- Calloway (Largest city: Murray)
- Campbell (Largest city: Fort Thomas)
- Carlisle (Largest city: Bardwell)
- Christian (Largest city: Hopkinsville)
- Clark (Largest city: Winchester)
- Crittenden (Largest city: Marion)
- Daviess (Largest city: Owensboro)
- Edmonson (Largest city: Brownsville)
- Fayette (Largest city: Lexington)
- Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg)
- Gallatin (Largest city: Warsaw)
- Grant (Largest city: Williamstown)
- Graves (Largest city: Mayfield)
- Hardin (Largest city: Elizabethtown)
- Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
- Hart (Largest city: Horse Cave)
- Henry (Largest city: Eminence)
- Hickman (Largest city: Clinton)
- Hopkins (Largest city: Madisonville)
- Johnson (Largest city: Paintsville)
- Kenton (Largest city: Covington)
- LaRue (Largest city: Hodgenville)
- Leslie (Largest city: Hyden)
- Logan (Largest city: Russellville)
- Madison (Largest city: Richmond)
- Marshall (Largest city: Benton)
- Martin (Largest city: Inez)
- Mason (Largest city: Maysville)
- McCracken (Largest city: Paducah)
- Meade (Largest city: Brandenburg)
- Mercer (Largest city: Harrodsburg)
- Metcalfe (Largest city: Edmonton)
- Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Sterling)
- Nelson (Largest city: Bardstown)
- Nicholas (Largest city: Carlisle)
- Ohio (Largest city: Hartford)
- Owen (Largest city: Owenton)
- Owsley (Largest city: Booneville)
- Pendleton (Largest city: Falmouth)
- Powell (Largest city: Stanton)
- Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet)
- Scott (Largest city: Georgetown)
- Shelby (Largest city: Shelbyville)
- Simpson (Largest city: Franklin)
- Spencer (Largest city: Taylorsville)
- Todd (Largest city: Elkton)
- Trigg (Largest city: Cadiz)
- Warren (Largest city: Bowling Green)
- Washington (Largest city: Springfield)
See also
- 2007 United States elections
- 2007 United States gubernatorial elections
- State of Kentucky
- Governors of Kentucky
- BluegrassReport.org—Kentucky politics blog run during Gov. Fletcher's administration
References
- ^ LEX18 - Lexington, KY - News, Weather, Sports - Fletcher, Beshear To Face Off In Nov Archived May 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Democratic Attorney General-elect Andy Beshear pledges cooperation with Republican Governor". WDRB. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2024.
- ^ "SurveyUSA News Poll #12133". Surveyusa.com. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ Penn, Schoen and Berland
- ^ GarinHartYang Research Archived 2007-09-27 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ a b Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ Mellman Group
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ GarinHartYang Research
- ^ a b "Kentucky State Board of Elections Welcome to the State Board of Elections". Elect.ky.gov. Archived from the original on August 24, 2011. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
- ^ Steitzer, Stephenie (February 2, 2007). "Northup: Survey shows her tied with Fletcher". The Kentucky Post. Covington, Kentucky. p. A2.
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
- ^ Research 2000
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Insider Advantage
- ^ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
- ^ Preston-Osborne
- ^ Research 2000
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Preston-Osborne
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Insider Advantage
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ "22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
External links
Candidates
Information
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